Amodei said AI would write 90% of code. It's about half.

In March 2025, Dario Amodei told the Council on Foreign Relations that within 3-6 months AI would write 90% of all code, and within 12 months "essentially all of it." That deadline passed in March 2026. The code is still very much co-written.

The numbers, depending on how you count: a study tracking 4.2 million developers from Nov 2025 to Feb 2026 found AI's share of merged production code rose from 22% to 26.9%. Sonar's January 2026 survey put committed code at 42%. JetBrains' 2026 Developer Ecosystem Survey (15,000+ devs, May-July 2026) has developers self-reporting ~47% fully agent-generated — with 22% of developers letting agents write 80%+ of their code. Google claims 75% of new code is AI-generated and human-approved; Microsoft says 20-30% of its repos.

The spread isn't noise, it's definitional. "AI-written" covers accepted tab-completions, agent-authored PRs, and anything a human later rewrote. The gap between typed by a model and shipped to production is where the 90% claim quietly lives. Even inside Anthropic, the 90% figure appears to be aspiration rather than telemetry.

What did land: the job changed. Engineers report spending most of their time reviewing, steering, and editing rather than writing from scratch. Amodei got the direction right and the clock badly wrong — a pattern worth remembering the next time a lab CEO gives you a six-month number.

Why it matters: AI capability forecasts from people selling the capability are directionally useful and numerically worthless — plan your hiring around the 27%, not the 90%.